Why Business Analogies Matter – the Groupon example

It is June 2011, and Groupon is fast heading towards a $30 billion valuation in an initial public offering.   That is a big number for a company with $645 million revenue and 83 million subscribers.  How do we know this valuation makes sense?  We probably don’t.  There are a lot of metrics that financial analysts would use, but I’d like to point out one that my firm uses — identifying the relevant business analogy and understanding that in order to shed light on the implications for the company one is studying, in this case Groupon.  This methodology is an externally focussed “best practices” approach.

The analogy

The immediate analogy that comes to mind is the quick-service restaurant business.  Why?  Because the operators of this type of business have basically the same value-creation strategy as Groupon.   They keep adding outlets to support their high-growth model.  The real issue starts to occur when they reach saturation.  Groupon does somewhat the same thing but in a totally different industry.  They are bringing deals to their subscriber base on behalf of clients where they have negotiated a deal-sharing arrangement, e.g., once-in-a-lifetime daily spa treatment for one-third the normal price.  As they add sales reps (think restaurant outlets), they add new subscribers (think restaurant patrons), and they sell more deals (think meals) and grow revenues.

We know that listed restaurant chains can do phenomenally well until they hit the wall that we call market saturation.  Starbucks is a good example of someone who hit saturation a couple of years ago, and the stock suffered.  The chain has since gone back to basics, retreated from poor outlets, and rejuvenated the offer in order to get back on track, but there is a lesson to be drawn here by the Groupons of the world.

Implications for Groupon et al.

Groupon is adding staff, subscribers and deals, but basically it’s the same story as for the expanding quick-service chain.  We as subscribers are starting to suffer deal fatigue.  I know because I get a couple of daily feeds from cities to which I frequently travel.  In my consulting world the key strategic challenge is helping key decisionmakers figure out the next step before it even occurs – looking forward to the eventuality and trying to make it work in your client’s favor.

In the quick-service restaurant world, operators respond by thinking about how to increase same-store sales (a year-on-year comparison of sales for outlets that have been open at least a year).  This is a key metric of the overall vitality of a quick-service restaurant chain.   Those who will invest long-term in Groupon need to identify what they same metric is and how Groupon or a similar company is responding to it.  The initial look is pretty sobering.  The New York Times did some nice analysis on Groupon metrics, as sourced from their S-1:

What can we do

The moral of the story is that for all the success of Groupon, they still need to be thinking one step further ahead in order to justify their proposed valuation.  Each of us works in different industries, probably less dynamic than this, but there is the same opportunity to help identify new sources of value creation by better understanding business analogies.  This is one of the things we do at Faculty Partnership.  If you are interested in discussing further, please do get in touch.

IOD reacts to Clegg’s parental leave proposals

The IOD’s February newsletter reacted negatively to Nick Clegg’s policy on giving more paternity leave to workers over a prolonged period of time. To paraphrase Miles Templeman, the IOD’s Director General, paternity leave was acceptable only if there was no impact on costs, shareholder dividends and it didn’t add extra administrative activity to the HR function. With these constraints my sense is that the IOD are saying ‘no’ to the policy without coming out directly, although the article was strongly worded enough.

My sense was that Mr Templeman is coming at the issue from an ideologically free market stance without accounting for the paradoxical nature in the IOD’s own policymaking. For example, there is a later article in the same newsletter bemoaning the difficulty of getting high calibre women into boardroom positions. The paradox here is that apart for gender inequality in the boardroom, there is often a forced choice between having a family or a career due the inflexibility of our current working practices. Our nations current ways of working hark back to the industrial revolution rather than an age of technological achievement and flexibility. Surely, if couples can choose which parent goes back to work and which takes leave there is an opportunity for women, who have there eye on high office, to continue their climb?

I’m unsure as to whether the IOD spends a great deal of time looking for best practice, but if the argument against paternity leave is around reduced shareholder dividends, company profits and thus productivity, Mr Templeman should look to the most productive countries for a model. Alas, for the IOD’s capitalist credentials those countries with the highest levels of social welfare and shortest working hours have the most productive workers. France and Switzerland are two European examples of highly productive workers enjoying the fruits of their labour by spending time with family. The USA (8th) and Great Britain (10th +) lag far behind the productivity ratings both of which follow a similar free market doctrine with long working hours and in the case of America limited social welfare support.
The reason behind such strong productivity ratings in countries such as France I can only reflect on. As a Dad myself, I took time to understand the dynamics of becoming a parent and working in the UK.

Firstly, post birth support for new mothers is very patchy. This is partly due to the dispersed nature of modern families. Grandparents now do not necessarily live in the same city or even region, so ‘popping next door’ in an emergency to get help is not an option. There are support groups such as the National Childbirth Trust (NCT) and various local authorities groups who attempt to fill the void left by absent families. These support networks are all aimed primarily at first time parents. Much less is available if it is your second child. The other options for support are employing a nanny or a childminder, unfortunately, this has an impact on the family both personally and financially.

We joined the NCT for our first child and noticed the Dads went back to work almost immediately. Bonding between baby and Father was quite difficult as most of the ‘breadwinner’ roles demanded long hours, especially in the South East where a long commute adds 2 hours plus onto a working day. Stress levels for both parents were high as sharing the childcare role was difficult when the child is more attached to one parent than the other.

We chose a different route. I took 6 weeks off work and have been working flexibly to balance my work with our childcare needs ever since. Whilst this arrangement obviously has financial implications, the rewards outweigh the financial sacrifice. We share the childcare equally, an activity that has brought unplanned rewards. Our son is happy, content and secure to be without his mother for a week at a time whilst she updates her skills and I work from home.

Modernising our current governmental policy around the relationship between work and families may well have the kind of beneficial effects that I have experienced. The short-term benefits have certainly not been financial, as I have paid for my own leave directly. The medium term will be different, as both of us will continue our businesses. For our children, (the next is due in 6 weeks) they will benefit from a happy and secure home environment.

My own view is that such a newsletter article worded in such a way has unpleasant overtones. I was left feeling that the way the senior managerial strata, represented by the IOD, think about their own position and the position of those they manage has not changed over the last 100 years. Would it not be deeply disappointing if all of the co-created change energy expelled over the last 20 + years was wasted, because senior management were just playing lip service to it?

Therefore, as a member of the IOD myself, I am in favour of Nick Clegg’s plans to make paternity leave available to all families. I would like to suggest that because of the benefits in the long term to our commercial productivity and thus prosperity, that the IOD should take the lead by commissioning research and developing best practice around how flexible leave for families can work for commercial business.

Andrew Woodward – Executive Director at Faculty Partnership CIC Ltd
February 2011

Good and Bad Freemiums or a Different Shade of Freeconomics

A recent airline ticket experience led me to  think about freemiums and freeconomics.  Freemiums refer to the basic, free part of a paid service, e.g., internet subscription services.  A good example is LinkedIn where many of its 90 million users take advantage of the free service to establish networks and communicate within them.  A smaller group pay for a value-added service.

Freeconomics is the idea of making money by giving things away.  The classic example is razors and blades.  Give away the razor and sell the blades at a premium.  The less pithy economic term is cross-subsidy, where one thing can be free if you pay for the other.  Free downloads and paid concerts is a more recent example of this concept.

How does the cost of my recent airline ticket relate?.  My gross airfare to and from Dublin was zero – zero Pounds Sterling, zero Euros, zero whatever.  But the total cost of the ticket was £117.85.  It made me realize that there are good freemiums and bad freemiums, both that impact on corporate strategy, which is my area of interest.  This ticket was an example of a bad freemium.

Let me explain this ticket in a bit more detail.

Cost Breakdown of Aer Lingus Return Ticket – LGW-DUB

Airfare                                      £  00.00

Internet handling fee                £  10.00

Tax and Charges                   £  57.85

Golf clubs                                 £  50.00

Total £117.85

This approach made strategic sense the first time, for example when RyanAir was pushing free and £1.99 airfares.  But that idea is no longer fresh.  I was taught in 10th grade grammar that “Every sentence gotta make sense”.  The price breakdown above makes no sense.

With freemiums and freeconomics, I get something of value for paying nothing.  It may be a basic social networking service, a few free music downloads with an invitation to a paid concert, entrance to part of an exhibit, and so forth.   But with this airline ticket, there is nothing I receive that is free.  I can’t fly for free because I have the internet handling fee and of course the taxes.

As intelligent strategic thinking is one of the things we focus on, I would postulate that there really has to be a deal here for this type of pricing to make any sense.  An internet handling fee of £10 isn’t a deal when we know that we are saving airlines money on reservations agents.  Think ATMs as a precedent.

Referring to a credit card fee would make more sense, given we are all starting to understand credit card costs better and are given choices ranging from less expensive (EFT and debit cards) to more expensive (Amex).  This fee would vary with the type of payment used – from nothing to around 4%.

There still is room to charge a bit more for the base ticket while still keeping it a great deal.  Would my behavior change for a £4.99 fare each way?  I doubt it.  Finally, I won’t deal here with special charges here, as I deal with it in our blog about competitive discontinuity in the ski industry which speaks to these charges (http://bit.ly/frGMMl )

By not having this a la carte pricing make intuitive sense, companies are sending a subliminal message to check out competitors that take a simpler pricing model, e.g., British Airways in the UK and Southwest in the USA.

The moral of the story is to not to be too smart by half.  Freeconomics works great but be prepared to back it up with a true offer.  For example, why shouldn’t a walk-on airfare with no luggage be exceptionally cheap while add-on services apply to anyone who doesn’t want plain vanilla.    Companies need to think clearly to get these concepts right.

By the way, I felt that the Aer Lingus deal was too good to be true and checked on British Airways fares.  This time they weren’t better, but there will be a time when they are.

What is intelligent strategic thinking in the train industry?

There was an interesting article in the Sunday Times titled “Make trains run like the budget airlines”. What to do about trains in Britain. The think tank Policy Exchange offers an 8-point plan for fixing trains here. There is reference to research that shows UK trains are 40% less efficient than those in Germany, Belgium and Ireland. An immediate thought – what must that data have been like 10 years ago?

One of the major themes of this piece is the need for trains to pay for themselves with no subsidy. In the UK there still are subsidies paid to train operators in order to keep trains affordable. But those of us in England all know people who have £2,500-£4,000 annual passes to get to and from work each day.

This is where I say the strategist needs to step back and ask a preliminary question before having a prescription for remedy. And that is, “What is a public good and what isn’t, and if it is a public good, how much should we contribute to it?” Commuter trains wouldn’t exist if governments didn’t build them. That’s a fact. The US is a good reference point for what happens with no subsidy.

So the strategic challenge is to construct a glide path to the lowest possible subsidy possible. Zero subsidy is only reasonable if it is affordable for people to continue to use trains — because the citizens of England have already decided that trains are a good thing and we don’t want to force people off them. Having figured that out, many of the conclusions that Policy Exchange develops make a lot of sense. For instance, making localities where stations are very infrequently used kick in some money to support continued service; an information exchange for potential franchise owners on which to gather information for their bids; and alternative configurations of operators and track maintainers all seem good recommendations. There are other good ones as well.

My takeaways from this rumination. First, as Policy Exchange recommends, people should always be experimenting with new things to see if they work better. Rail would certainly benefit from further experimentation. And second, developing strategy sometimes involves peeling back multiple layers to uncover the best path forward. For more information on how Faculty Partnership approaches this issue, please visit Intelligent Strategic Thinking.

Ski industry example of competitive discontinuity

I was jogging last week contemplating the autumnal beauty of Richmond Park, London when my mind somehow stepped forward to winter and skiing. Maybe I was looking forward to some ski escape. But I digress. Actually I was thinking a bit further for competitive discontinuity examples and thought skiing made a perfect one.

The situation 10-15 years ago was as follows: the ski equipment industry was probably getting reasonably excited about the trends in equipment development. Parabolic skis were coming into their own, and if you were in the lift lines, it was easy to tell old from new. The major external threat was probably boarding and the question of growth versus cannibalization and share of total “alpine” usage. The M&A teams of large ski equipment companies and investment bankers probably looked at ski equipment rental opportunities and thought, “Dispersed, asset intensive, mom and pop, etc. etc.” We will pass on owning any of that.

Thus people happily drove or flew to ski destinations and brought their own equipment. Those of us who were infrequent skiers rented equipment at the mountain. Few of us saw the competitive discontinuity of recent years, which has been the advent of “special equipment” baggage fees imposed by many airlines (not all, but probably most now). I laugh and cry every time I take a golf trip on EasyJet or Ryanair, and the cost of transporting the golf clubs is alwaysthe most expensive part of the ticket. It’s about £40-£50 return to ship “special equipment”.

Because skis are much longer and don’t just fit in the car trunk/boot, the dynamics of that market are slightly different. Why not rent the skis locally vs. bring the ones I purchased when the alternative is the high cost of airplane transportation. I can rent them by the lifts, change them every day if I really wanted to (I don’t) taking powder skis on powder days and adjusting my parabolic ski choice if I don’t like what I originally rented; and finally leaving them by the slopes when finished for the day. How convenient. This probably costs $25/day – a bit of a luxury but bearable.

Consumers are now buying less ski equipment than they typically would have in the past (adjusting for technology) and the value is shifting to a) ski rental companies and b) airlines. This was a tricky one to foresee given that the shifts came in a two industries, but it shows how you’ve got to challenge the conventional wisdom to anticipate these types of discontinuities.

One wonders if there isn’t another discontinuity out there that manufacturers could initiate in order to re-establish their direct link with the consumer.

Go to our website for another view on competitive discontinuity. Competitive Discontinuity: Anticipating and Acting

Lateral thinking – another iPad example

I once started a company making a remote doorlock for your home that worked like keyless entry for your car. In an early focus group, someone said, “It’s the type of product that I wonder today why I need it and in two years wonder how the heck I lived without it”. The company didn’t survive but I felt I’d done justice to the notion of thinking less conventionally, e.g., “thinking laterally”. Here’s another example from Apple iPad users of that concept in action. Bone’s, an Atlanta, Georgia steakhouse has its entire 1,350 label wine list on a iPad you receive when you enter. Sales are up 11% since this introduction. Read the story: Choosing Wines at the Touch of a Screen.

Also, check out how Faculty Partnership addresses these types of issues:

Garment industry example of competitive discontinuity

This article Chinese Remake the ‘Made in Italy’ Fashion Label. is a fascinating account in the 15 Sep, 2010 International Herald Tribune about how Chinese garment manufacturers have come to Italy to upend the business that thrives on “Made in Italy” garments. They’ve started at the low- and middle-end, but like Japanese auto manufacturers in the 1960s, we can imagine them making the finest Italian cloth in the not-too-distant future.

The key here is that the Italians needed to keep an eye on these things and develop an appropriate response. As a government, they could have developed appellations like the French do or they could have occupied this space themselves. Inertia took over and now the Chinese-Italian manufacturers are winning.

Go to our website for another view on competitive discontinuity. Competitive Discontinuity: Anticipating and Acting

Musings from a private sector guy doing public sector work (tax policy)

I do a fair amount of work now in both the Private Sector and the Public Sector. The mantra of private sector work is to fix things that need changing. With the Public Sector, it is sometimes difficult to figure out what needs fixing. Everyone has an opinion – more of this, less of that. Politics is always front and center, but this is at the expense of our economic health. Deep in our gut we all know that tax policy needs fixing.

What we might consider is stepping back and starting over. Ross Douhat in the New York Times said that “The problem is not that we tax high-rollers too lightly, it’s that we subsidize their irresponsibility”. How true this is. We have a system where we use tax policy to encourage behavior but this has side effects. A few examples:

- Deductibility of mortgage interest in the US encourages people to buy more house than they can our should

- Farm subsidies – why are grain crops heavily subsidized and beef isn’t

- Tax preference for debt versus equity based on tax deductibility of loan interest

- Investment tax credits, once started, never go away and encourage continued development of what eventually become sunset industries

I could go on, but my point is that a truly efficient market can help us make these allocations. The best example of this is with income and tax. Currently the most highly taxed income is salaries and wages. Why is that work more highly taxed than that which comes from dividends and interest or capital gains?

Having the same tax regime for all types of income and expense will encourage earners, savings, investors, and manufacturers and so forth to make decisions based on the merits of the case. This can be a progressive system, e.g., the progressive flat tax (say 10%, 25% and 35%), but it will be one that is based on good economics rather than good tax strategy.

It would certainly be interesting if debt didn’t have such an attraction from tax deductibility that it encourages folks to leverage themselves to their maximum and often beyond.

There are probably many flaws in this logic, but we do need to remind ourselves that the current system doesn’t work and if something doesn’t work, we owe it to try something new. Do we really have the courage to let the markets work to the greater benefit of us all?